Public predictions observatory

Dated, sealed predictions on live M&A deals. Published before the outcome, so anyone can verify them. These are probabilistic analyses — not investment advice, not statements of fact about the companies.

The English text of each prediction is a translation for readability. The sealed, publicly verifiable original is in Italian — the seal (sha256) is computed on it and never changes.

Dated — with a public stampSealed — the starting prediction is never erasedCalibrated over time — checked against real outcomes
Updates
Point A — you are hereAssessment

The public, verifiable proof that the contradictor sees the risks others don't.

Point B — the productDecision support

CounterBrain uses the same engine for the next step: standing beside the decision-maker and improving the final outcome.

This page proves we see it right (A). The heart of CounterBrain is the next step: helping decision-makers decide better (B).

10 live deals · Italy + Europe · threshold ≥ €1bn
banking · ITin progress
Intesa SanpaoloMonte dei Paschi
€30.6bn
Most likely: Goes through but disappoints · 40%
Updated · 24 Jun 2026Open the card
telecom · ITin progress
Poste ItalianeTelecom Italia
€10.8bn
Most likely: Goes through but disappoints · 45%
Updated · 8 Jul 2026Open the card
banking · IT–DEin progress
UniCreditCommerzbank
~€35–40bn
Most likely: Stuck as blocked minority · 45%
Updated · 10 Jul 2026Open the card
defense · FR–ITin progress
Airbus · Leonardo · Thalesfusione satelliti (Project Bromo)
€6.5bn
Most likely: Passes and creates the champion · 35%
Updated · 24 Jun 2026Open the card
telecom · FRin progress
Bouygues · Iliad · OrangeSFR (spezzatino)
€20.35bn
Most likely: Passes, rational market · 35%
Sealed prediction · 20 Jun 2026Open the card
asset management · UKin progress
NuveenSchroders
£9.9bn
Most likely: Closes, integrates well · 60%
Updated · 10 Jul 2026Open the card
insurance · UK–CHin progress
ZurichBeazley
£8.1bn
Most likely: Closes, specialty leader · 60%
Updated · 2 Jul 2026Open the card
services · UKin progress
EQTIntertek
£10.9bn
Most likely: Closes as expected · 70%
Sealed prediction · 20 Jun 2026Open the card
consumer · UKin progress
IngredionTate & Lyle
£2.7bn
Most likely: Clears antitrust, closes · 50%
Sealed prediction · 20 Jun 2026Open the card
nutrition · CHin progress
CVCdsm-firmenich (Animal Nutrition & Health)
€2.2bn
Most likely: Clean exit, rewarded · 45%
Sealed prediction · 20 Jun 2026Open the card
Every prediction is «stamped» with a public digital fingerprint (sha256) and a sealed copy, so the date and content cannot be altered after the fact.
Per-card stamp · sealed on 20 Jun 2026 · fingerprints in git history and anchored to Bitcoin (OpenTimestamps).
The percentages are reasoned estimates, calibrated over time — not certainties. Content for research and methodological transparency; it does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell.