Public predictions observatory
Dated, sealed predictions on live M&A deals. Published before the outcome, so anyone can verify that they have not been rewritten. These are probabilistic analyses — not investment advice, not statements of fact about the companies.
The English text of each prediction is a translation for readability. The sealed, publicly verifiable original is in Italian — the seal (sha256) is computed on it and never changes.
A public, time-stamped record designed to make future calibration and error analysis possible. It does not yet establish predictive accuracy or decision impact.
The same engine, used beside the decision-maker before the decision. Whether it improves decisions is a separate question, which this page does not measure.
The Observatory publishes probabilistic forecasts before outcomes and preserves their original record (A). This supports future calibration and error analysis; with the current sample it is not evidence that CounterBrain predicts better or improves decisions (B).
Where the facts come from
Since 10 Jul 2026, the update engine only examines news from three kinds of source. A newspaper, an aggregator or a trade outlet is not an admitted source: it reports the fact already interpreted.
- Third-party authorities — the body that decides (European Commission, ECB, Consob, competition authorities): the decision is the fact.
Full list (18)
European Commission · ECB · ECB Banking Supervision · ESMA · EBA · BaFin · Bundeskartellamt · Consob · Bank of Italy · AGCM · IVASS · CMA · ACCC · SEC · FTC · DOJ Antitrust · AMF · CNMV
- News agencies — they report the fact without commenting on it (Reuters, ANSA, Bloomberg, MLex…).
Full list (13)
Reuters · Associated Press · AFP · Bloomberg · MLex · ANSA · AGI · Adnkronos · Askanews · Agenzia Nova · Teleborsa · Radiocor · Teleborsa (Borsa Italiana)
- Issuers — the companies listed below, on their official channels: reliable on the facts they are required to disclose (acceptances, prices, thresholds, dates), not on their own assessments. A company involved in a deal but missing from the list is not an admitted source.
Full list (23)
UniCredit · Commerzbank · Intesa Sanpaolo · Monte dei Paschi · Banco BPM · Poste Italiane · TIM · Airbus · Leonardo · Thales · Bouygues · Iliad · Orange · Nuveen · Schroders · Zurich · Beazley · EQT · Intertek · Ingredion · Tate & Lyle · CVC · dsm-firmenich
Even on an admitted domain, paid press releases are excluded: the domain tells you who hosts, not who writes.
The source type is passed on to both judges, together with the rule on how far to trust each one.
Candidate news comes from newsapi.ai (Event Registry), which indexes articles: being found there does not certify them. What counts is who wrote them, and the filter checks that before any judgment.
Before 10 Jul 2026 this rule did not exist: 5 published updates cite a source now outside the perimeter. They remain visible and flagged, because the register is never rewritten. See them in the log →
The policy governs updates. The sources listed on each card are the context available at sealing time and stay as they are, like the rest of the sealed envelope.