Observatory — updates log

The Ingredion-Tate & Lyle deal has been approved in China.

EU antitrust regulators (European Commission) have set November 16, 2026 as the deadline for their decision on UniCredit's Commerzbank deal. This is the first official decision date publicly communicated, marking a procedural milestone in the regulatory process, but constituting neither a clearance nor a veto. Current scenarios remain unchanged pending the outcome.

Moody's has upgraded TIM's rating to Baa3 with a positive outlook, indicating a favorable change post-OPAS in the M&A operation of Poste Italiane on Telecom Italia.

According to MLex, the Airbus, Leonardo and Thales space joint venture (Project Bromo) is under regulatory review in Australia. This represents a further procedural step in the multi-jurisdictional approval process, following the notification to the European Commission already under way.

Delfin has declared its commitment to tender into Intesa Sanpaolo's offer for Monte dei Paschi, providing significant support to Intesa's bid.

Foreign regulatory approvals required for Intesa Sanpaolo's tender offer on Monte dei Paschi are proceeding smoothly: 75% of the required clearances have already been obtained. This is a concrete and quantified progress in the offer's authorisation process, partially reducing uncertainty on the international approvals front, while the main contest (Italian/European antitrust and the MPS→BPM counter-offer) remains open.

Schroders Capital CEO Wunderlin is set to exit the group following the Nuveen takeover. The departure of the head of the alternative assets division — one of the most strategically significant units — adds a layer of managerial discontinuity to a picture already marked by £8.3 billion in net outflows recorded ahead of closing. The development does not call into question the completion of the deal, expected in Q4 2026, but represents a further risk indicator for the integration phase.

At the end of the reopening period of the OPAS, Poste Italiane reached 85.8% of TIM's capital, marking significant progress in the acquisition.

Nuveen has launched the structuring of a sterling-denominated bond — its debut in that currency — alongside a dollar issuance, to finance the Schroders acquisition. Concurrently, Schroders appointed Westerman as its new chairman ahead of closing. Both developments indicate the deal is advancing concretely toward completion expected in Q4 2026, without materially altering the risk profile already reflected in current scenarios.

On the first day of the reopened acceptance period, Poste Italiane reaches 67% of TIM's share capital, a further step up from the 66.627% definitively recorded on 15 September 2026. The reopening of the offer period marks the start of the post-OPAS phase aimed at further consolidating the stake acquired.

The in-depth probe into Intesa-MPS addresses market overlaps, branch plan, and Generali link.

On 15 September 2026, the final results of the tender offer were announced: Poste Italiane has reached 66.627% of TIM's share capital. The definitive figure (previously reported as a provisional 66.6%) formally closes the acceptance period and paves the way for the next steps of the transaction.

Consob has requested Monte dei Paschi to recalculate the exchange ratios for its offer on Banco BPM and Banca Generali net of the Intesa effect: the first formal intervention by the Italian regulator on the financial terms of the alternative transaction, adding a layer of regulatory scrutiny to the MPS→BPM process and, indirectly, to the overall deal complexity.

Poste Italiane has provisionally reached 66.6% of TIM's capital, a material threshold in the M&A operation.

On 11 September 2026, Bloomberg reports that UniCredit CEO Orcel held his first direct meeting with the German federal government to discuss Commerzbank's fate. This marks a further step in political dialogue — following the meeting with a German state premier on 4 September — but does not constitute an agreement or a regulatory breakthrough. The blocked-minority scenario remains the most likely outcome.

The competing bids for MPS (including MPS's own offer for Banco BPM) have entered Italian antitrust review, as Intesa Sanpaolo's formal filing is said to be imminent. This marks the first official entry of the deal into Italian regulatory proceedings, with both alternatives under simultaneous scrutiny.

On 4 September 2026, Bloomberg reports that UniCredit met with a German state premier to discuss the Commerzbank deal. The meeting, following the CEO-level talks announced on 10 August, signals a broadening of dialogue toward regional German political authorities, but does not constitute an agreement or a regulatory breakthrough. The blocked-minority scenario remains the most likely outcome.

As of 8 September 2026, acceptances in Poste Italiane's tender offer for Telecom Italia exceed 7.1% of share capital, further progressing from the 6.15% recorded on 5 September. The acceptance pace remains well below the thresholds required for the offer's success and does not yet signal a structural acceleration.

As of 5 September 2026, acceptances of Poste Italiane's tender offer for Telecom Italia exceed 6.15% of share capital, a clear step up from the 3.7% recorded on 29 August. The pace of acceptances nonetheless remains far below the thresholds required for the offer to succeed and does not yet signal a structural acceleration.

As of 29 August 2026, acceptances in Poste Italiane's OPAS on Telecom Italia exceed 3.7% of share capital, further progressing from the 2% recorded on 18 August. The acceptance rate remains very low and no material success threshold has been reached.

Monte dei Paschi launches a €34 billion offer to acquire Banco BPM and Banca Generali. The move, if confirmed, transforms MPS from a passive target of Intesa Sanpaolo's bid into an independent acquirer, structurally complicating the Intesa→MPS deal and raising the risk that the latter falls through or is significantly scaled back.

As of 18 August 2026, acceptances of Poste Italiane's tender offer on Telecom Italia exceed 2% of share capital, up from the 1.92% recorded on 14 August. The pace of acceptances remains very low and no material threshold for the offer's success has been reached.

As of 14 August 2026, acceptances in Poste Italiane's tender offer for Telecom Italia have reached 1.92% of share capital, up from the 1.62% recorded on 10 August. The pace of acceptances remains very low: no material success threshold has been reached and the trend shows no significant acceleration.

UniCredit and Commerzbank have initiated talks on a change of control, marking a significant shift from the previous stalemate.

As of 10 August 2026, acceptances of Poste Italiane's tender offer for Telecom Italia reach approximately 1.62% of share capital, up from the 1.52% recorded on 7 August. The pace of acceptances remains very subdued and no material threshold for the offer's success has been reached.

As of 7 August 2026, acceptances in Poste Italiane's tender offer for Telecom Italia exceed 1.52% of share capital, up from 1.01% recorded on 3 August. The pace of tendering remains very low. Separately, Moody's has placed TIM's rating under review for a possible upgrade, a positive external signal linked to the offer.

According to a source cited by Reuters (6 Aug 2026), the CEOs of UniCredit (Orcel) and Commerzbank briefly spoke but did not start formal merger talks. The development clarifies that the willingness to engage declared in late July has not translated into negotiations, confirming the ongoing stalemate. No change to scenarios: blocked minority remains the most likely outcome.

Bloomberg reports that Schroders recorded £8.3 billion in net outflows ahead of the completion of Nuveen's acquisition. Outflows of this magnitude — likely driven by management uncertainty and potential reallocation by institutional clients pending integration — represent a concrete and measurable operational deterioration. The development does not call the deal closing into question, but increases the risk that integration will disappoint expectations, shifting probability from the most optimistic scenario toward the intermediate one.

As of 3 August 2026, acceptances in Poste Italiane's tender offer for Telecom Italia have exceeded 1.01% of share capital, up from the 0.9% recorded on 31 July. The pace of acceptances remains very low.

The $3.6 billion deal between Ingredion and Tate & Lyle has been cleared in Brazil by CADE.

As of 31 July 2026, acceptances of Poste Italiane's tender offer on Telecom Italia have exceeded 0.9% of share capital, up from 0.49% recorded on 27 July. The pace of acceptances remains very low in the early stages of the offer period.

Advisers for Monte dei Paschi and Banco BPM are reportedly working on an alternative deal that includes a cash component, competing directly with Intesa Sanpaolo's takeover bid. The emergence of a structured rival process materially increases the risk that Intesa's offer fails or requires significant revision.

Bloomberg reports that Finma, the Swiss financial supervisory authority, has imposed a partial sales ban on Zurich, with the CEO also confirming staff departures. This regulatory action against Zurich — separate from the Beazley acquisition approval process — is a new development post-signing, to be monitored for any potential impact on the group's ability to complete the deal.

As of 27 July 2026, acceptances in Poste Italiane's tender offer for Telecom Italia stand at 0.49% of the share capital. This figure, the first official update since the offer launched, signals a very cautious start from TIM shareholders, though the acceptance period is still in its early stages.

Ingredion and Tate & Lyle have filed merger notification with Brazil's antitrust authority CADE and requested fast-track review for the ~$3.6bn deal. This is the first publicly confirmed post-signing regulatory development: the multi-jurisdictional clearance process is formally underway in Brazil.

On 24 July 2026, both UniCredit CEO Orcel and Commerzbank Chairman Weidmann publicly stated their openness to constructive talks with the counterpart and the German government. This marks a shift in tone from the previous standoff, but does not yet constitute an agreement or a regulatory breakthrough. The blocked-minority scenario remains the most likely pending concrete developments.

The European Commission has formally referred the deal to the French Autorité de la concurrence. The regulatory pathway is now defined: the national watchdog will conduct the review. This is a material procedural development that reduces uncertainty about which authority will decide, without prejudging the outcome; overall confidence rises slightly.

Poste Italiane launches the OPAS on TIM, with the telco's Board deeming the consideration appropriate.

The European Commission has unconditionally approved Nuveen's acquisition of Schroders (case M.12392) under the simplified procedure: the transaction raises no competition concerns given the parties' limited combined market position. The decision was made public on 6 July 2026. European antitrust clearance was, however, already priced in at the time of sealing — the card treated antitrust risk as low — and it is not the final hurdle: completion remains subject to the remaining regulatory approvals and is expected in the fourth quarter of 2026. The fact is therefore recorded without recalibrating scenarios or confidence.

On 8 July 2026 UniCredit announced the final results of its offer for Commerzbank: 17.60% of share capital was tendered which, added to the 26.77% held directly and the 3.22% in instruments carrying a right to physical delivery, brings its overall stake to 47.59% of share capital, equal to 49.65% of voting rights. Acceptances attributable to independent investors (institutional and retail) amounted to less than 2%. UniCredit also holds economic exposure of 13.19% through cash-settled derivatives, which confer neither shares nor voting rights: the figures close to 60% circulating in the press add this component and do not measure voting power. The German government retains about 12% and remains opposed; completion is subject to regulatory approvals, including the ECB. The outcome sharply reduces the probability of a withdrawal and raises that of control, but with 49.65% of the votes, no domination agreement and no consent from Berlin, blocked minority remains the most likely scenario.

Poste Italiane approves a capital increase of €372 million, a concrete signal that the company is raising the financial resources needed to support its bid for Telecom Italia.

Schroders is closing in on the sale of its Benchmark division, aiming to focus the group on ultra-high-net-worth clients ahead of its integration with Nuveen.

The ACCC (Australian competition authority) has unconditionally cleared Zurich's £8.1 bn acquisition of Beazley. This is the first publicly confirmed regulatory approval since the deal was signed, reducing the risk of the transaction being blocked.

Institutional investors tendered just over 1% of Commerzbank shares in UniCredit's offer, according to an official announcement by Commerzbank. The figure — even lower than the first offer's take-up — further reinforces the blocked-minority scenario and increases pressure toward a potential withdrawal.

According to the Financial Times (picked up by Il Sole 24 Ore), Leonardo is close to formally submitting the Bromo project to the EU Commission for approval of the joint venture with Airbus and Thales. CEO Mariani confirmed his commitment to the dossier and the political support of Italy and France. It is the first public procedural development after the seal: the imminent regulatory notification marginally reduces uncertainty over the start of the antitrust process, while leaving the outcome open.

Monte dei Paschi CEO Luigi Lovaglio publicly stated that he welcomes the expressions of interest received from both Intesa Sanpaolo and Banco BPM, calling MPS a 'top player' and saying that weighing the options on the table is a duty towards shareholders. It is the first public stance taken by MPS management after the tender offer was launched, signalling openness to the process but expressing no preference between the bids.

The German government officially confirms, through government sources cited by Reuters (22 Jun 2026), that it will not tender into UniCredit's offer and will not sell its 12.7% stake in Commerzbank, calling UniCredit's plans 'unworkable' as long as Berlin keeps its holding. It also signals an intention to block any delisting. This is an official, public stance taken after the seal, which materially strengthens the block/minority scenario and further reduces the probability of control.

Monte dei Paschi's board meets on 22 June 2026 to weigh both Intesa Sanpaolo's tender offer and Banco BPM's alternative proposal: the first formal board meeting since the bid was launched, at which MPS management must take an official position on the two options. It is the first significant procedural step after the seal, but the outcome of the meeting is not yet known.