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Poste Italiane → Telecom Italia

€10.8bntelecom · IT
Sealed prediction · 20 Jun 2026 · in progress
Deal announced: 23 Mar 2026

State-controlled Poste Italiane offers €10.8bn to take over all of Telecom Italia and delist it, building a national 'digital champion'.

The three possible outcomes
Succeeds and creates value
30%
Goes through but disappoints
45%
Falls through or revised
25%
Why these estimates. The premium is low (~9%) and the asset is complex and indebted: the bet looks more political than industrial, so 'closes but disappoints' prevails.
Confidence: low
● Seal sha256 · 84322e5ff2ad044807df47db8dd8e2a1c6b3e5085b27f455dad37c404436dd16
Seal computed on the sealed Italian original — translating the displayed text never alters it.
⛓Anchored to Bitcoin · OpenTimestampsdownload the proof (.ots)Tamper-evident proof of existence: it attests when the analysis was sealed, not whether it is correct. Verify independently at opentimestamps.org
Resolution criteria

"Salta o rivista" (falls through or revised): tender offer withdrawn, lapsed, or completed with consideration or perimeter changed versus the announcement. "Riesce e crea valore" (succeeds and creates value): offer completed on announced terms with Telecom Italia delisted (via acceptances, squeeze-out or merger) within twelve months of completion. "Va in porto ma delude" (completes but disappoints): completed on announced terms but without delisting within that term. Resolution based on official issuer announcements or rulings by the competent authorities (ente/primaria tier sources); the card closes at the first condition met.

● Addendum of 9 Aug 2026 — own sha256 seal · d88a74910aa9b055036c938d93c3b87955af6189b87ab0dd5038cb4449b74bd1
Seal computed on the sealed Italian original — translating the displayed text never alters it.
Updates
10 Oct 2026

Moody's has upgraded TIM's rating to Baa3 with a positive outlook, indicating a favorable change post-OPAS in the M&A operation of Poste Italiane on Telecom Italia.

agencyTeleborsa
29 Sept 2026

At the end of the reopening period of the OPAS, Poste Italiane reached 85.8% of TIM's capital, marking significant progress in the acquisition.

agencyTeleborsa
22 Sept 2026

On the first day of the reopened acceptance period, Poste Italiane reaches 67% of TIM's share capital, a further step up from the 66.627% definitively recorded on 15 September 2026. The reopening of the offer period marks the start of the post-OPAS phase aimed at further consolidating the stake acquired.

agencyTeleborsa
16 Sept 2026

On 15 September 2026, the final results of the tender offer were announced: Poste Italiane has reached 66.627% of TIM's share capital. The definitive figure (previously reported as a provisional 66.6%) formally closes the acceptance period and paves the way for the next steps of the transaction.

agencyTeleborsa
13 Sept 2026

Poste Italiane has provisionally reached 66.6% of TIM's capital, a material threshold in the M&A operation.

agencyTeleborsa
9 Sept 2026

As of 8 September 2026, acceptances in Poste Italiane's tender offer for Telecom Italia exceed 7.1% of share capital, further progressing from the 6.15% recorded on 5 September. The acceptance pace remains well below the thresholds required for the offer's success and does not yet signal a structural acceleration.

agencyTeleborsa
8 Sept 2026

As of 5 September 2026, acceptances of Poste Italiane's tender offer for Telecom Italia exceed 6.15% of share capital, a clear step up from the 3.7% recorded on 29 August. The pace of acceptances nonetheless remains far below the thresholds required for the offer to succeed and does not yet signal a structural acceleration.

agencyTeleborsa
6 Sept 2026

As of 29 August 2026, acceptances in Poste Italiane's OPAS on Telecom Italia exceed 3.7% of share capital, further progressing from the 2% recorded on 18 August. The acceptance rate remains very low and no material success threshold has been reached.

agencyTeleborsa
20 Aug 2026

As of 18 August 2026, acceptances of Poste Italiane's tender offer on Telecom Italia exceed 2% of share capital, up from the 1.92% recorded on 14 August. The pace of acceptances remains very low and no material threshold for the offer's success has been reached.

agencyTeleborsa
16 Aug 2026

As of 14 August 2026, acceptances in Poste Italiane's tender offer for Telecom Italia have reached 1.92% of share capital, up from the 1.62% recorded on 10 August. The pace of acceptances remains very low: no material success threshold has been reached and the trend shows no significant acceleration.

agencyTeleborsa
11 Aug 2026

As of 10 August 2026, acceptances of Poste Italiane's tender offer for Telecom Italia reach approximately 1.62% of share capital, up from the 1.52% recorded on 7 August. The pace of acceptances remains very subdued and no material threshold for the offer's success has been reached.

agencyTeleborsa
10 Aug 2026

As of 7 August 2026, acceptances in Poste Italiane's tender offer for Telecom Italia exceed 1.52% of share capital, up from 1.01% recorded on 3 August. The pace of tendering remains very low. Separately, Moody's has placed TIM's rating under review for a possible upgrade, a positive external signal linked to the offer.

agencyTeleborsa
7 Aug 2026

As of 3 August 2026, acceptances in Poste Italiane's tender offer for Telecom Italia have exceeded 1.01% of share capital, up from the 0.9% recorded on 31 July. The pace of acceptances remains very low.

agencyTeleborsa
1 Aug 2026

As of 31 July 2026, acceptances of Poste Italiane's tender offer on Telecom Italia have exceeded 0.9% of share capital, up from 0.49% recorded on 27 July. The pace of acceptances remains very low in the early stages of the offer period.

agencyTeleborsa
28 Jul 2026

As of 27 July 2026, acceptances in Poste Italiane's tender offer for Telecom Italia stand at 0.49% of the share capital. This figure, the first official update since the offer launched, signals a very cautious start from TIM shareholders, though the acceptance period is still in its early stages.

agencyTeleborsa
20 Jul 2026

Poste Italiane launches the OPAS on TIM, with the telco's Board deeming the consideration appropriate.

agencyTeleborsa
8 Jul 2026

Poste Italiane approves a capital increase of €372 million, a concrete signal that the company is raising the financial resources needed to support its bid for Telecom Italia.

source predates the policyIl Messaggero