Airbus · Leonardo · Thales → fusione satelliti (Project Bromo)
Sealed prediction · 20 Jun 2026 · in progress
Deal announced: 2026
Europe's three aerospace giants combine their satellite arms to create a champion able to stand up to SpaceX. The new company would be worth ~€6.5bn in revenue.
The three possible outcomes
Passes and creates the champion
35%
Passes with remedies, disappoints
30%
Blocked
35%
Why these estimates. The only real unknown is EU antitrust (a near-European monopoly): German rival OHB threatens appeals. That is why the three outcomes are almost evenly balanced.
Confidence: low
Sources: SpaceNewsMarketScreener — OHB
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Updates
24 Jun 2026
According to the Financial Times (picked up by Il Sole 24 Ore), Leonardo is close to formally submitting the Bromo project to the EU Commission for approval of the joint venture with Airbus and Thales. CEO Mariani confirmed his commitment to the dossier and the political support of Italy and France. It is the first public procedural development after the seal: the imminent regulatory notification marginally reduces uncertainty over the start of the antitrust process, while leaving the outcome open.