Twelve decisions. Twelve blind spots caught before the cost.

There is a gap to fill in defense and a long-standing supplier ready to fill it with a powerful platform. The political and budget window is open now, and everyone is pushing to sign.

A company growing 25% a year, in a sector driven by sustainability. The price is high — 11 times annual earnings — but «the trajectory justifies it».

Growing in mortgages on office real estate: attractive yields, buildings as collateral, long-standing relationships with developers.

The Phase II trial gave a positive, statistically solid result. Inside the company there's a push to start Phase III before the competitor.

A large, heavily fossil-intensive energy infrastructure. At today's prices and consumption, it pays back in 8 years.

Developing internally — for «control, differentiation and intellectual property» — instead of buying the technology or partnering.

Bringing a strategic component «back home» to reduce geopolitical risk, with public incentives covering part of the cost.

Growing where premiums are high and demand is racing, with catastrophe models judged «under control».

Adopting a more accurate system (in the vendor's tests) to improve efficiency and quality of care.

A broad incentive to hit a public target, perceived as popular and «good for everyone».

Reacting to the media attack by firmly denying and threatening legal action.

Replicating abroad the model that wins at home, betting on the advantage of arriving first in a huge market.