Bouygues · Iliad · Orange → SFR (spezzatino)
Sealed prediction · 20 Jun 2026 · in progress
Deal announced: 6 Jun 2026
Three rivals (Bouygues, Iliad, Orange) carve up SFR for ~€20bn, cutting France's mobile operators from four to three.
The three possible outcomes
Passes, rational market
35%
Passes with heavy remedies
35%
Blocked / collapses
30%
Why these estimates. Going from 4 to 3 operators is the EU antitrust's historic red line: clearance may come only with heavy remedies, hence the high weight on the uncertain outcomes.
● Seal sha256 · 8fcc2fcca2eeb99dbff830e3804d70f27cbc6e3a732ac9e4b9c26d2b7fd3aa98
Seal computed on the sealed Italian original — translating the displayed text never alters it.
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