Bouygues · Iliad · OrangeSFR (spezzatino)

€20.35bntelecom · FR
Sealed prediction · 20 Jun 2026 · in progress
Deal announced: 6 Jun 2026

Three rivals (Bouygues, Iliad, Orange) carve up SFR for ~€20bn, cutting France's mobile operators from four to three.

The three possible outcomes
Passes, rational market
35%
Passes with heavy remedies
35%
Blocked / collapses
30%
Why these estimates. Going from 4 to 3 operators is the EU antitrust's historic red line: clearance may come only with heavy remedies, hence the high weight on the uncertain outcomes.
Confidence: low
Sources: BloombergCNBC
Seal sha256 · 8fcc2fcca2eeb99dbff830e3804d70f27cbc6e3a732ac9e4b9c26d2b7fd3aa98
Seal computed on the sealed Italian original — translating the displayed text never alters it.
Anchored to Bitcoin · OpenTimestampsdownload the proof (.ots)Tamper-evident proof of existence: it attests when the analysis was sealed, not whether it is correct. Verify independently at opentimestamps.org
Resolution criteria

"Bloccata / disfatta" (blocked / unwound): veto by the competent authority (Autorité de la concurrence) or formal abandonment by the parties. "Passa, mercato razionale" (clears, rational market): clearance with no binding commitments in the operative part of the ruling. "Passa con rimedi pesanti" (clears with heavy remedies): clearance with binding commitments in the operative part — structural (spectrum, networks, brands, customer books) or behavioural (wholesale access, MVNO hosting, price constraints). Resolution based on official issuer announcements or rulings by the competent authorities (ente/primaria tier sources); the card closes at the first condition met.

Addendum of 9 Aug 2026 — own sha256 seal · f4c79e4ca3d25c7ce414e85e64041977097c9a21837686824b7b5a5e0f8b13fe
Seal computed on the sealed Italian original — translating the displayed text never alters it.
Updates
22 Jul 2026

The European Commission has formally referred the deal to the French Autorité de la concurrence. The regulatory pathway is now defined: the national watchdog will conduct the review. This is a material procedural development that reduces uncertainty about which authority will decide, without prejudging the outcome; overall confidence rises slightly.

confidence: low → low–mediumReuters