Ingredion → Tate & Lyle
Sealed prediction · 20 Jun 2026 · in progress
Deal announced: 8 Jun 2026
America's Ingredion buys Britain's Tate & Lyle (food ingredients) for ~£2.7bn, ending 87 years of listing in London.
The three possible outcomes
Clears antitrust, closes
50%
Blocked by antitrust
30%
Closes but disappoints
20%
Why these estimates. The price is good and the board is in favour: the real risk is not value, it is antitrust (specialty starches, above all in the US), which can block the deal or force divestitures.
Confidence: low–medium
Sources: BloombergMLex — antitrust
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