IngredionTate & Lyle

£2.7bnconsumer · UK
Sealed prediction · 20 Jun 2026 · in progress
Deal announced: 8 Jun 2026

America's Ingredion buys Britain's Tate & Lyle (food ingredients) for ~£2.7bn, ending 87 years of listing in London.

The three possible outcomes
Clears antitrust, closes
50%
Blocked by antitrust
30%
Closes but disappoints
20%
Why these estimates. The price is good and the board is in favour: the real risk is not value, it is antitrust (specialty starches, above all in the US), which can block the deal or force divestitures.
Confidence: low–medium
Seal sha256 · 480b7a2e8bf5801aaefda8bb95bd44ee06971057911026cd5957c4cafe44aca9
Seal computed on the sealed Italian original — translating the displayed text never alters it.
Anchored to Bitcoin · OpenTimestampsdownload the proof (.ots)Tamper-evident proof of existence: it attests when the analysis was sealed, not whether it is correct. Verify independently at opentimestamps.org
Resolution criteria

"Bloccata dall'antitrust" (blocked by antitrust): prohibition by an antitrust authority required for closing, abandonment due to antitrust opposition, or — by declaration, as the residual negative scenario — failure to complete for any other cause (shareholder vote, financing, termination). "Supera antitrust, si chiude" (clears antitrust, closes): clearance in all required jurisdictions without structural divestments, and closing completed. "Si chiude ma delude" (closes but disappoints): closing completed but subject to divestments or structural remedies imposed by antitrust. Resolution based on official issuer announcements or rulings by the competent authorities (ente/primaria tier sources); the card closes at the first condition met.

Addendum of 9 Aug 2026 — own sha256 seal · c82652c2fcf4c87a8a51ddd8ce29fc56490b33b91d635d83fecc1b10c3a60034
Seal computed on the sealed Italian original — translating the displayed text never alters it.
Updates
7 Aug 2026

The $3.6 billion deal between Ingredion and Tate & Lyle has been cleared in Brazil by CADE.

25 Jul 2026

Ingredion and Tate & Lyle have filed merger notification with Brazil's antitrust authority CADE and requested fast-track review for the ~$3.6bn deal. This is the first publicly confirmed post-signing regulatory development: the multi-jurisdictional clearance process is formally underway in Brazil.