Poste Italiane → Telecom Italia
Sealed prediction · 20 Jun 2026 · in progress
Deal announced: 23 Mar 2026
State-controlled Poste Italiane offers €10.8bn to take over all of Telecom Italia and delist it, building a national 'digital champion'.
The three possible outcomes
Succeeds and creates value
30%
Goes through but disappoints
45%
Falls through or revised
25%
Why these estimates. The premium is low (~9%) and the asset is complex and indebted: the bet looks more political than industrial, so 'closes but disappoints' prevails.
Confidence: low
Sources: InvestingTotal Telecom
● Seal sha256 · 84322e5ff2ad044807df47db8dd8e2a1c6b3e5085b27f455dad37c404436dd16
Seal computed on the sealed Italian original — translating the displayed text never alters it.
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Updates
8 Jul 2026
Poste Italiane approves a capital increase of €372 million, a concrete signal that the company is raising the financial resources needed to support its bid for Telecom Italia.