Poste ItalianeTelecom Italia

€10.8bntelecom · IT
Sealed prediction · 20 Jun 2026 · in progress
Deal announced: 23 Mar 2026

State-controlled Poste Italiane offers €10.8bn to take over all of Telecom Italia and delist it, building a national 'digital champion'.

The three possible outcomes
Succeeds and creates value
30%
Goes through but disappoints
45%
Falls through or revised
25%
Why these estimates. The premium is low (~9%) and the asset is complex and indebted: the bet looks more political than industrial, so 'closes but disappoints' prevails.
Confidence: low
Seal sha256 · 84322e5ff2ad044807df47db8dd8e2a1c6b3e5085b27f455dad37c404436dd16
Seal computed on the sealed Italian original — translating the displayed text never alters it.
Anchored to Bitcoin · OpenTimestampsdownload the proof (.ots)Tamper-evident proof of existence: it attests when the analysis was sealed, not whether it is correct. Verify independently at opentimestamps.org
Resolution criteria

"Salta o rivista" (falls through or revised): tender offer withdrawn, lapsed, or completed with consideration or perimeter changed versus the announcement. "Riesce e crea valore" (succeeds and creates value): offer completed on announced terms with Telecom Italia delisted (via acceptances, squeeze-out or merger) within twelve months of completion. "Va in porto ma delude" (completes but disappoints): completed on announced terms but without delisting within that term. Resolution based on official issuer announcements or rulings by the competent authorities (ente/primaria tier sources); the card closes at the first condition met.

Addendum of 9 Aug 2026 — own sha256 seal · d88a74910aa9b055036c938d93c3b87955af6189b87ab0dd5038cb4449b74bd1
Seal computed on the sealed Italian original — translating the displayed text never alters it.
Updates
20 Aug 2026

As of 18 August 2026, acceptances of Poste Italiane's tender offer on Telecom Italia exceed 2% of share capital, up from the 1.92% recorded on 14 August. The pace of acceptances remains very low and no material threshold for the offer's success has been reached.

16 Aug 2026

As of 14 August 2026, acceptances in Poste Italiane's tender offer for Telecom Italia have reached 1.92% of share capital, up from the 1.62% recorded on 10 August. The pace of acceptances remains very low: no material success threshold has been reached and the trend shows no significant acceleration.

11 Aug 2026

As of 10 August 2026, acceptances of Poste Italiane's tender offer for Telecom Italia reach approximately 1.62% of share capital, up from the 1.52% recorded on 7 August. The pace of acceptances remains very subdued and no material threshold for the offer's success has been reached.

10 Aug 2026

As of 7 August 2026, acceptances in Poste Italiane's tender offer for Telecom Italia exceed 1.52% of share capital, up from 1.01% recorded on 3 August. The pace of tendering remains very low. Separately, Moody's has placed TIM's rating under review for a possible upgrade, a positive external signal linked to the offer.

7 Aug 2026

As of 3 August 2026, acceptances in Poste Italiane's tender offer for Telecom Italia have exceeded 1.01% of share capital, up from the 0.9% recorded on 31 July. The pace of acceptances remains very low.

1 Aug 2026

As of 31 July 2026, acceptances of Poste Italiane's tender offer on Telecom Italia have exceeded 0.9% of share capital, up from 0.49% recorded on 27 July. The pace of acceptances remains very low in the early stages of the offer period.

28 Jul 2026

As of 27 July 2026, acceptances in Poste Italiane's tender offer for Telecom Italia stand at 0.49% of the share capital. This figure, the first official update since the offer launched, signals a very cautious start from TIM shareholders, though the acceptance period is still in its early stages.

20 Jul 2026

Poste Italiane launches the OPAS on TIM, with the telco's Board deeming the consideration appropriate.

8 Jul 2026

Poste Italiane approves a capital increase of €372 million, a concrete signal that the company is raising the financial resources needed to support its bid for Telecom Italia.